Iran peace talks entered their most uncertain phase yet Monday as Vice President JD Vance prepared to lead a delegation to Islamabad alongside envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Axios reported, even as Iranās Foreign Ministry formally stated it has āno plansā for a second round and Tehran suspected the invitation was cover for a surprise US military strike before Wednesdayās ceasefire expiry.
Summary
Two US Air Force C-17 cargo planes landed at a Pakistani air base Sunday carrying security equipment, and Islamabadās Red Zone was locked down with thousands of security personnel deployed in anticipation of a US arrival.
Trump told Axios: āI feel fine about it. The concept of the deal is done. I think we have a very good chance to get it completed,ā directly contradicting Iranās public rejection of talks.
Pakistanās foreign ministry confirmed its counterpart spoke with Iranās foreign minister by phone Sunday about āthe need for continued dialogue,ā leaving a narrow window for Iran to reverse its stance.
Iran peace talks are entering their most consequential 48 hours with the ceasefire set to expire Wednesday and no Iranian delegation publicly confirmed. The US delegation is traveling regardless. Pakistan has kept Islamabad under security lockdown in anticipation of a second round, with thousands of paramilitary and army personnel deployed through the Red Zone.
The US team, the same configuration that led the failed first round on April 11 and 12, is led by Vance and includes Witkoff and Kushner. Two US Air Force C-17 cargo planes had already landed at a Pakistani air base Sunday with security equipment and vehicles, signaling the delegation was committed to arriving whether or not Iran confirmed participation.
Tehran has told intermediaries it believes the US announcement of talks is designed to build a āblame gameā narrative: publicly committing to negotiations while preparing military strikes to coincide with the ceasefire expiry. The Sunday seizure of the Touska, arriving hours after Trump announced the Pakistan talks, reinforced that suspicion. Iranās Foreign Ministry described US statements about negotiations as āa media game.ā
Iranās chief negotiator Ghalibaf said in state television remarks Saturday that Iranās armed forces remain āreadyā even while pursuing diplomacy, framing the two tracks as simultaneous rather than alternative. The original ceasefire was announced hours before a midnight deadline during which Trump had threatened āa whole civilization will die tonight.ā Iranās negotiating team arrived at the first round dressed in black, in mourning for those killed in the war. The level of institutional mistrust is not rhetorical.
What Pakistan Is Attempting as Mediator
Pakistan has framed this engagement as an ongoing āIslamabad processā rather than a single discrete round, giving itself diplomatic room to survive a second collapse without the entire framework breaking down. Prime Minister Sharif spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian on Sunday. Pakistanās army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has served as the primary interlocutor between delegations throughout the conflict.
Despite Iranās public rejection, Pakistani authorities completed Red Zone security preparations, suggesting Islamabad has reasons to believe Iran may still participate. An Iranian parliamentary official told Al Jazeera that Iran would ālikelyā send a team Monday or Tuesday, a gap between the Foreign Ministryās statement and the parliamentary officialās remark that Pakistan is actively working to close.
What the Outcome Means for Crypto Markets
The next 48 hours will determine which scenario plays out for Bitcoin price markets. A ceasefire extension or genuine deal replicates the April 8 template: oil crashes and BTC surges, potentially toward $80,000. A confirmed collapse with resumed strikes tests the institutional demand floor below $70,000.
The Iran nuclear sticking point remains the hardest to bridge: the US requires Iran to permanently halt uranium enrichment, and Iran has said it will not surrender its 440-kilogram stockpile. A second round would need to find a formula, such as third-party custody of the stockpile, that neither side has publicly endorsed but that both have reportedly discussed through Pakistani intermediaries.
