Rebeca Moen
Nov 03, 2025 03:04
DOT price trades at $2.88 down 2.7% as unanimous referendum approval for system chains upgrade provides positive catalyst amid broader crypto weakness testing key technical support levels.
Quick Take
• DOT trading at $2.88 (down 2.7% in 24h)
• Unanimous system chains upgrade referendum signals strong community backing
• Price testing lower Bollinger Band support at $2.83
• Following Bitcoin’s weakness amid broader risk-off sentiment
Market Events Driving Polkadot Price Movement
The most significant development for Polkadot this week was the unanimous passage of a referendum to upgrade all system chains and schedule the Asset Hub Migration. This technical advancement demonstrates robust community consensus and positions the network for enhanced functionality, providing a positive fundamental backdrop despite current price weakness.
Polkadot’s participation in Hong Kong Fintech Week from November 3-7 adds another layer of institutional exposure, showcasing the network’s interoperability solutions to a global audience. However, the failure of the Staking Dashboard funding referendum reflects some community friction over resource allocation, though this had minimal market impact.
In the absence of major breaking news catalysts, DOT price action is primarily driven by technical factors and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. The token is experiencing selling pressure alongside Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, with risk-off sentiment dominating trading decisions.
DOT Technical Analysis: Testing Critical Support Zone
Price Action Context
DOT price currently sits below all major moving averages, trading at $2.88 compared to the 20-day SMA at $3.01 and 50-day SMA at $3.59. This positioning indicates sustained bearish pressure, with the token down 26% from its 52-week high of $5.31. The current price action shows Polkadot following Bitcoin’s weakness rather than establishing independent strength.
Volume on Binance spot market reached $14.4 million in 24 hours, indicating moderate institutional interest but lacking the conviction needed for a sustained reversal.
Key Technical Indicators
The RSI at 38.18 sits in neutral territory but approaching oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a technical bounce. The MACD histogram shows a slight bullish divergence at 0.0218, indicating weakening selling momentum despite the overall negative MACD reading of -0.1722.
Most critically for Polkadot technical analysis, the %B indicator at 0.1532 shows DOT price near the lower Bollinger Band at $2.83, a level that has historically provided support during previous corrections.
Critical Price Levels for Polkadot Traders
Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $3.01 (20-day moving average and psychological level)
• Support: $2.83 (lower Bollinger Band and recent 24-hour low)
Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios
A break below $2.83 support could trigger further selling toward the next major support at $2.77, with the 52-week low at $2.87 already breached. Conversely, a successful defense of current levels and move above $3.01 resistance could target the immediate resistance at $3.34.
DOT Correlation Analysis
• Bitcoin: DOT price is closely following Bitcoin’s bearish momentum, with both assets experiencing similar percentage declines in the current session
• Traditional markets: Risk-off sentiment from equity markets appears to be weighing on cryptocurrency prices broadly
• Sector peers: Polkadot is underperforming relative to some layer-1 competitors, suggesting specific selling pressure beyond general market weakness
Trading Outlook: Polkadot Near-Term Prospects
Bullish Case
A successful defense of the $2.83 lower Bollinger Band support, combined with positive momentum from the Hong Kong Fintech Week exposure, could spark a technical bounce toward $3.01 resistance. The unanimous referendum passage provides fundamental support for medium-term strength.
Bearish Case
Failure to hold current support levels amid continued Bitcoin weakness could see DOT price decline toward the strong support zone at $2.77. Broader cryptocurrency market sentiment remains fragile, creating additional downside risk.
Risk Management
Traders should consider tight stop-losses below $2.80 given the proximity to key support. The daily ATR of $0.23 suggests position sizing should account for potential 8% daily moves in either direction.
Image source: Shutterstock
