The market crash triggered by renewed US–China tariff tensions sent most altcoins sharply lower. Yet Pi Coin (PI) held its ground better than expected. Despite losing nearly 23% over the past week (part of it happening during the crash), the Pi Coin price managed to stay above the $0.15 support, showing resilience at a time when most tokens broke lower.
Since October 7, Pi has steadily recovered and now trades close to $0.20, hinting that buyer confidence may be quietly returning. A closer look at both the chart and on-chain behavior suggests that Pi could be gearing up for a rebound, provided selling pressure keeps cooling off.
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Shrinking Sell Volume and Money Flow Show Buyers Are Returning
On the daily chart, the volume spread pattern—often studied in Wyckoff-style analysis—helps identify shifts in buying and selling strength.
During the tariff-driven crash, a red bar dominated the chart, signaling full control by Pi Coin sellers. But that bar has now turned yellow, meaning sellers remain active but with less intensity.
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More importantly, the yellow bars have been shrinking. That shows selling momentum is fading, and buyers are gradually stepping in.
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The last time this shrinking pattern appeared was in early August, when Pi Coin rallied nearly 40% in just four days. If this trend continues without another spike in red sell bars, PI could see a similar short-term rebound again.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)—which measures how much large-scale or institutional money is entering or leaving an asset—adds to this positive setup.
Even though CMF briefly dipped below zero, it remains well above its October 7 low and far stronger than its late-August levels.
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This means big traders are still quietly accumulating Pi Coin, even as smaller investors remain cautious (exhibited by still-yellow Wyckoff bars). Together, these signals reflect a cooling sell-off and slow return of buyer strength.
Bullish Divergence Hints at a Pi Coin Price Reversal in Motion
On the 12-hour chart, Pi Coin’s price has formed a bullish RSI divergence between September 23 and October 10. While the price made a lower low, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher low, showing that downward momentum is losing force.
While this kind of divergence is usually associated with trend reversals, considering PI’s weak price history, a rebound looks more likely.
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(RSI measures momentum between 0 and 100, showing when an asset is overbought or oversold.)
At the time of writing, PI trades at $0.201, sitting near the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. A 12-hour candle close above $0.205 could confirm a breakout attempt toward the next resistance at $0.238 — a roughly 18% upside from the current price.
If that move holds, PI could stretch gains toward $0.264 (about 31% higher) and possibly $0.290 (around 44% above current levels).
However, a drop below $0.184 would invalidate this rebound setup and could push the Pi Coin price back toward even $0.153, depending on how the broader market reacts.
