Crypto ETF Approval Odds Jump To 95% For Major Altcoins

Analysts covering the crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) space have tipped a 95% chance for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP ETFs to be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission this year.

Bloomberg’s ETF specialists Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart increased their odds for several altcoin spot exchange-traded funds in an X post on Monday.

“We expect a wave of new ETFs in the second half of 2025,” said Syeffart. 

The pair tipped the odds for Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) spot ETF approval at 95%, up from 90%.

They gave the same odds for the approval of an ETF based on a basket or index of crypto assets. 

The final SEC deadline for a decision on the three altcoin ETFs is in October, while a crypto basket ETF could be approved this week, according to the analysts. 

More altcoin ETFs to come 

The analysts had also tipped the odds of approval for other altcoin spot ETFs to 90%, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX), with final decisions due in the fourth quarter. 

Related: Crypto ‘altcoin ETF summer’ may come in July with SEC approvals: Analysts

ETFs filed by Canary Capital for Sui (SUI) and Tron (TRX) had lower approval odds, at 60% and 50%, respectively. 

In June, Balchunas said “get ready for a potential altcoin ETF summer,” while Seyffart opined that “ETFs that track broad crypto indexes may be approved by the SEC next month.” 

Solana staking ETF to launch 

Bloomberg also reported on Monday that the REX Osprey Solana Staking ETF is officially set to launch on Wednesday, becoming the first in the US to allow crypto staking. 

The product faced initial regulatory hurdles with the SEC, which objected after clearing its registration. The main issue was whether the ETF qualified as an investment company under securities laws.

To gain approval, the issuers compromised by agreeing to invest at least 40% of assets in other ETPs, mostly domiciled outside the US.

SEC procrastination continues

Meanwhile, the SEC is not ready to approve Ethereum staking yet, on Monday delaying its decision on whether the Bitwise spot Ether ETF could include staking.

The regulator also delayed its decision to approve the listing and trading of shares of the Osprey Bitcoin Trust. 

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