Bitcoin is trading near $68,240, down 45% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 14. Five consecutive negative monthly closes are about to print, a streak that has only occurred three times in Bitcoinâs entire history.
The question everyone is asking: is this a bear market bottom or just a pause before another leg down? Five signals are converging right now that could decide the answer.
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1. Five Negative Months Have Always Preceded a 100% Rebound
Crypto analyst Lark Davis flagged that the only three times Bitcoin posted five straight negative monthly closes were in 2011 and twice during the 2018 bear market. In each instance, Bitcoin rebounded 100% over the following five months.
2. The Nasdaq 200-Day MA Is the Real Tripwire
Institutional research firm Ecoinometrics warned that Bitcoin is already below its 200-day moving average, but the Nasdaq 100âs 200-day MA is still rising. If equities break down, Bitcoin follows.
âThere is no historical example of tech entering a real bear phase while Bitcoin quietly stabilizes,â the firm stated.
The setup is unstable. Bitcoin is weak while equities are still holding. A Nasdaq rollover would turn a grind into a drop.
3. Bitcoinâs Volatility Has Fallen Below Nvidiaâs
Ecoinometrics data shows Bitcoinâs 12-month realized volatility has stayed below Nvidiaâs since late 2022. ETF flows now dominate trend formation, replacing retail-driven spikes. That makes Bitcoin more durable structurally but more sensitive to equity drawdowns than in prior cycles.
4. The Altcoin MACD Crossover Not Seen Since May 2020
Davis highlighted that the Others/BTC chart has printed its first sustained bullish MACD crossover since the altcoin bleed began in April 2022. A brief crossover in March 2024 failed. This one has now held for two months.
The last time a crossover like this sustained was May 2020, right before the massive altcoin rally into 2021.
5. CLARITY Act Approaching March 1 Deadline
The Crypto CLARITY Act holds roughly 85-90% odds of passing on prediction markets. The White House has set a March 1 deadline for resolving the stablecoin yield dispute between banks and crypto firms.
Davis called it the potential âsparkâ for the market.
The Fed isnât pivoting. Equities havenât broken. The altcoin signal is flashing. And a regulatory catalyst sits weeks away. Five signals, one decision point. The next few weeks will settle which way this resolves.
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