The cryptocurrency market may be in the โwaiting roomโ ahead of the next phase of the price discovery stage, in a development that may see institutional capital extend the historical four-year cycle, according to industry watchers.
As the crypto market is awaiting its next catalyst, the โslow business cycleโsโ liquidity dynamics may extend the traditional four-year cycle into the first or second quarter of 2026, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor
โMany key parts of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch,โ wrote the popular analyst in a Friday X post, adding:ย
โOur work suggests (probabilistically speaking) that the cycle extends into Q1 2026 and possibly Q2 2026 due to slow business cycle forcing more liquidity for longer.โ
โPeople need to learn patience. The path is clear…but never, ever expect tick for tick perfection,โ he explained.
Pal uses the business cycle score as a macroeconomic model to track the current stage of the global economyโs broader cycle.
โRaoulโs framing of crypto being in the โwaiting roomโ resonates with how markets are behaving right now,โ according to Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken.
The recent pullback โcame not from onchain dynamics but from political tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve,โ the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:
โWhat supports the thesis of an extended cycle into 2026 is that institutional positioning hasnโt turned bearish.โ
Institutional allocations toward the two leading cryptocurrencies remain robust despite the โtug-of-warโ over interest rate policy, the analyst said.
Meanwhile, stablecoin inflows on Binance surpassed $1.65 billion, which may be seen as a potential precursor for renewed cryptocurrency investments, as stablecoins are the primary funding tools for traders.
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SOL, SUI, DOGE may be next to leave the crypto โwaiting roomโ โ Raoul Pal
Some of the cryptocurrency marketโs leading altcoins are currently preparing to leave the โwaiting roomโ ahead for the final parabolic stage of the rally, with the Solana (SOL) token being the โnext to leave,โ wrote Pal, sharing the below chart.
The chart shows an ascending triangle pattern, which is seen by technical traders as a bullish continuation pattern, signaling a potential price breakout upon confirmation.
Following the Solana token, Sui (SUI) will be the next altcoin to gain momentum, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE), once the largest cryptocurrencies excluding the top 10, also tracked as โOTHERS,โ will start to rally, predicted Pal.
Meanwhile, the XRP (XRP) token is โin the process of full porting,โ while the largest altcoins excluding the top 10 may still take โlonger to launch.โ
Related: Kanye Westโs YZY token: 51,000 traders lost $74M, while 11 netted $1M
Two months ago, Pal said that the current crypto market cycle mirrors patterns similar to 2017, when Bitcoinโs (BTC) price skyrocketed by over 1,255% during the year.
โItโs spookily similar to 2017,โ Pal said in a video on June 19, forecasting a longer crypto cycle compared to previous years, as a weakening US dollar may indicate that the crypto cycle is still far from its peak.
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