Timothy Morano
Apr 14, 2026 07:29
Multiple analysts warn Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 despite recent rally to $75K, citing bearish patterns and incomplete capitulation.
Bitcoin’s bounce to nearly $75,000 on Iran deal optimism hasn’t convinced bearish analysts who still expect a final capitulation to $50,000 before any sustainable recovery materializes.
The cryptocurrency has already shed roughly 40% from its all-time high, but several prominent traders argue the selling isn’t finished. Ivan Liljeqvist, a crypto trader and author, posted Tuesday that Bitcoin hasn’t experienced “the big flush” yet.
“I don’t think $60,000 was the bottom,” Liljeqvist wrote on X. “Trend is still down.” He noted that recent bounces appear “tiny” compared to the broader downtrend, and the momentum seen in previous bull markets “is just not here right now.”
The $50K Accumulation Zone
Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar outlined a three-phase framework suggesting Bitcoin has completed its accumulation period and now faces a “manipulation phase” that could drive prices to $50,000 before any distribution rally begins.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the $50,000 level represents “the last significant accumulation zone before any sustained recovery.” He characterized such a drop as a “healthy cycle reset amid macro pressures and weak capital rotation.”
“This could potentially set up for stronger bullish momentum once the flush concludes,” Ruck said, “but the institutionalization of crypto markets places consistent buying pressure at current levels.”
Another analyst posting as “symbiote” described Bitcoin as looking “super bearish” on higher timeframes, targeting either $59,000 or $50,000 for a final dump. Meanwhile, trader Jelle identified an active bear flag pattern—a technical signal suggesting further downside continuation.
Institutional Presence May Limit Damage
Not everyone expects the full flush to materialize. Ruck pointed out that previous retail-driven cycles saw progressively smaller drawdowns: 82% after the 2017 peak, then 77% following the 2021 high.
“There is a chance this cycle might not reach an idealized 60% drawdown due to its distinctively macro-structured market environment,” he said.
Fidelity Digital Assets reached a similar conclusion earlier this month, noting that downside risk has been “less dramatic in 2026” compared to previous cycles—likely a function of institutional buying providing consistent support at lower levels.
Bitcoin currently sits in a tight range, having rejected resistance near $75,000 during Tuesday’s Iran-deal-fueled rally. For bulls hoping that bounce marks the bottom, the analyst consensus suggests patience may be required. Whether institutional bids can prevent the $50,000 retest remains the key variable traders are watching into May.
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