The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 11. The Altcoin Season Index at 38, firmly in Bitcoin Season territory. And the crypto community is more divided than it has been all year.
On one side: “Most altcoins will die,” wrote Altcoin Daily today, a sentiment also echoed by Ash Crypto, who put it plainly – altcoins have been in a bear market since 2021.
On the other: trader Kazi is warning his followers that when alt season finally arrives, “it’s going to be like nothing you’ve EVER seen before.”
Who is right about this? Both camps have data. That’s what makes this interesting.
40% of Altcoins Are Near All-Time Lows
The numbers behind the bearish case are hard to dismiss. More than 36 million tokens now exist. Around 40% of altcoins are trading at or near all-time lows – worse than the reading recorded after the FTX collapse.
Selling pressure on altcoins has reached a cumulative $209 billion over the past 13 months, with no meaningful reversal.
Here’s something even more striking: the Fear & Greed Index has now been in Extreme Fear for 76 consecutive days – the longest such streak since the FTX collapse.
Bitcoin dominance remains elevated. Institutions are mostly parked in BTC and ETH ETFs. The capital rotation that powered 2021’s broad alt rally simply hasn’t shown up.
So Why Are the Bulls Still Here?
Because extreme readings like these have historically preceded reversals, not extensions. The CMC Altcoin Season Index sat at 12 as recently as April 2025 – its yearly low – before climbing back to 78 by September. The compression is real but so is the historical pattern.
The critical nuance most people are missing: both the bulls and bears can be right at the same time.
Also Read: “Vitalik, Do Something”: Ethereum Price Has Returned to $2,000 Twelve Times Since 2021
Altcoins Traders Are Watching This Weekend
Santiment’s social data for this weekend tells a clear story about where trader attention is actually concentrated.
Ethereum leads the conversation, driven by the quantum computing debate, the Foundation’s record staking move, and Charles Schwab’s announcement to offer direct spot ETH trading to its client base.
Solana follows, still processing the aftermath of the $285M Drift exploit and questions about network reliability. Bitcoin sits third, with the quantum paper, macro geopolitics, and corporate treasury flows keeping it front of mind.
USDC rounds out the top four, after ZachXBT’s dossier cataloguing over $420 million in compliance lapses since 2022 put Circle under scrutiny.
The market has already done its filtering, and it’s gravitating toward assets with real infrastructure, institutional presence, and active on-chain usage.
That’s the answer to the bull vs. bear debate.
Most altcoins are likely to die. And when the rotation comes, the survivors will see explosive moves precisely because so much of the competition has already been wiped out.
The Altcoin Season Index at 38 and Fear & Greed at 11 suggest the bottom of this cycle is closer than the top. But the reversal, when it comes, will be selective.
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