Murad Mahmudov, a crypto trader also known as the “Memecoin messiah,” has lost nearly $60 million across his bets in the past nine months. Still, he expects a bullish reversal.
Key takeaways:
Mahmudov thinks SPX6900, which is 96% of his memecoin portfolio, will rise 400,000%.
SPX6900 chart technicals signal another 20% decline in the coming weeks.
SPX6900 will reach $1 trillion market cap, claims Mahmudov
On Wednesday, Mahmudov said the market capitalization of SPX6900 (SPX), a memecoin on a mission to overtake the US benchmark S&P 500 index, will grow to $1 trillion from its current valuation of around $250 million, a nearly 400,000% increase.
For context, Bitcoin (BTC) is the only cryptocurrency that has been able to hit a $1 trillion mark so far, led by growing institutional demand.
Mahmudov’s publicly labeled wallets, tracked under the entity “Muststopmurad” by Arkham Intelligence, currently hold approximately 29.964 million SPX, valued at roughly $7.79 million.
This single position accounts for about 96% of his total tracked portfolio, currently valued at around $8.1 million.
At its peak in July last year, the same portfolio was worth around $67 million.
The drop since then amounts to an unrealized loss of roughly $60 million, as the broader memecoin sector, including SPX, corrected by more than 80% from its highs.
Mahmudov still holds SPX6900 and other memecoins
Mahmudov does not appear to be locking in the memecoin losses.
Portfolio tracker DropsTab shows no meaningful sales of SPX6900 or his other major positions, with realized profits and losses on the tracked holdings still at zero.
Importantly, the trader appears to be holding more than $6.22 million in unrealized gains instead of taking a profit.
Mahmudov’s refusal to sell also stands out because the broader memecoin market has been brutal toward its dedicated holders.
In a January report, CoinGecko said that 53.2% of all cryptocurrencies tracked since 2021 were inactive, with 11.6 million token failures recorded in 2025 alone that particularly “affected the memecoin sector.”
Related: Memecoins and art market share similar economics — Ki Young Ju
Mahmudov’s smaller wallet holdings also reveal the limits of memecoin conviction.
Public DEX data for ticker-level matches, including RETARDMAXX, HONK and CHAD, shows that some of these names are barely functional.
One RETARDMAXX pair had roughly $44,000 in liquidity but just six transactions and $89 in daily volume, while CHAD showed $842 in liquidity with zero trades and zero makers.
One HONK pair, meanwhile, had just $1 in liquidity and no recorded activity. Those tokens may still print a price on screen, but in a selloff, they offer little evidence of dependable exit liquidity.
SPX900 breakdown hints at more losses ahead
On the three-day chart, SPX6900 appears to be breaking down from a rising wedge, a bearish pattern that typically resolves lower after price slips below support.
SPX has already started losing the wedge’s lower trendline near $0.26 and remains below its 20-, 50- and 100-period exponential moving averages, underscoring weak momentum.
If the breakdown confirms, the measured move points to $0.205, about 20% below current levels.
A 20% drop in SPX would cut roughly $1.56 million from Mahmudov’s memecoin portfolio.
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