Crypto markets may be weathering what appears to be a perfect storm, but according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the sector is far from lifeless.
Speaking to CNBC’s The Exchange this week, Lee framed the recent 50% Bitcoin drawdown not as a structural collapse but as a “crypto squall,” driven more by macro shocks than by any fundamental weakness in blockchain networks.
Tom Lee: Crypto Faces a “Squall,” Not a Winter, as Tariff Turbulence Hits Markets
The turbulence comes on the heels of a US Supreme Court decision striking down the bulk of President Trump’s emergency tariffs. The ruling initially triggered a relief rally for markets.
“Investors are generally relieved,” Lee said. “It’s putting limits on executive powers and bifurcating stocks between those affected by tariffs and those largely shielded.”
The technology, software, and crypto sectors were minimally impacted by the original tariff regime. According to Tom Lee, these sectors could benefit as the cloud of uncertainty lifts.
Yet the reprieve is short-lived. Trump swiftly responded by escalating alternative tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act, raising duties to 15%, fueling a risk-off rotation.
Safe havens like gold and silver surged: gold hit highs above $5,160 per ounce, while silver approached $88. Precious metals miners also rallied. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slid below $65,000, with the broader crypto market shedding more than $100 billion in 24 hours.
Despite this volatility, Lee argued the narrative of a “crypto winter” is misleading. He pointed to parabolic growth in Ethereum’s daily transaction activity, accelerating tokenization, and Wall Street integration as signs that the market is growing.
“Crypto suffers mainly because gold has done so well, attracting risk appetite away from speculative assets,” Lee noted. “There’s no leverage in crypto, and those seeking high-frequency trades have favored precious metals.”
Bitcoin’s 50% Drawdown Is a “Squall,” Not a Crash, Says Tom Lee
Lee emphasized that prior drawdowns, when Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% seven times historically, have sometimes preceded deep bear markets. However, this episode differs:
It is a slower
Psychologically taxing grind rather than a euphoric collapse.
“We’re experiencing the classic bear market blues,” he said. “Non-euphoric tops yield slower grinding retracements, not immediate 70% drops. Historical midterm-year patterns also suggest caution rather than premature optimism.”
Monetary policy may further influence crypto’s trajectory. With tariffs potentially reducing headline inflation and the labor market softening, the Federal Reserve could gain flexibility to cut rates, creating a more favorable backdrop for risk assets, including digital currencies.
Lee suggested that this combination of macro developments and fundamental adoption trends positions crypto for resilience despite headline volatility.
While gold, silver, and traditional equities may capture immediate risk-off flows, crypto’s underlying infrastructure, increasing institutional interest, and network activity could provide a floor.
“This isn’t a collapse; it’s a squall,” Lee concluded. “For those patient enough to understand the historical cycles, crypto remains very much in play.”
As markets digest both Supreme Court rulings and tariff escalations, the next few months will test whether crypto can stabilize while traditional assets absorb the shock.
Lee’s view suggests that the old rules of crypto bear markets no longer fully apply, and that opportunity may lie in the eye of this squall.
